Bitcoin
Bitcoin saw a 2.96% increase over the past week. Throughout the seven days, BTC traded within a range between $57,800 and $61,800. Volatility was minimal, with price changes never exceeding 4%.
The decline in Bitcoin observed in early August has been halted, as confirmed by various metrics. For instance, the inflow of BTC to exchanges fell by more than three times by mid-August. On August 4, there was an inflow of 94,000 BTC, while on August 20, it dropped to just 31,000 coins, according to data from the analytical platform CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin is also supported by the dynamics of spot ETFs on BTC. Since August 14, there hasn't been a single day with an outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds. During this period, the total inflow amounted to $301.49 million.
Moreover, from August 16 to 23, the open interest, or the number of open derivatives on Bitcoin, continued to grow. The figure increased by almost 9%, rising from $29.24 billion to $31.86 billion. The largest exchanges trading Bitcoin derivatives remain the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) with $9.68 billion and Binance with $7.18 billion, accounting for more than 50% of the total open interest.
According to technical analysis, Bitcoin investors are currently in a state of equilibrium between bulls and bears, with no clear trend emerging. The price has approached the 50-day moving average (marked in blue) but has not exceeded it. The MVRV ratio stands at 1.92, indicating that the market price is almost twice the realized price (the price at which BTC was acquired). This also suggests neutrality in the market. A similar assessment can be given to the MVRV Z-Score, which is at 1.6. The support and resistance levels are $56,100 and $62,729, respectively.
The Fear and Greed Index increased by seven points compared to the previous week. As of August 23, 2024, its value is 34, indicating that fear still prevails over greed among crypto investors.
Ethereum
The price of Ethereum rose by 1.72% from August 16 to 23, 2024. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continues to struggle to break through the $3,000 level, or even $2,800. Over the past week, Ethereum traded in a very narrow range: $2,537 to $2,696.5.
ETH continues to be under pressure from negative news in the spot ETF market. Over the past six days, there has been an outflow of funds exceeding $93 million. This is the longest streak of outflows from spot ETFs on Ethereum since the funds were launched on July 23.
While ETH currently appears weaker than Bitcoin or Solana, there may soon be a reason for optimism. In early 2025, a major update called Pectra (Prague-Electra) is expected to be implemented on the Ethereum blockchain. This update will include several new features, such as increasing the staking limit for validators from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, as well as a feature called Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which will reduce costs for Layer 2 solutions—nodes will no longer need to download large data sets entirely to confirm transactions.
According to technical analysis, Ethereum is still dominated by bears. The price is below the 50-day moving average (marked in blue). Volatility continues to decline, as indicated by the ATR indicator reaching its lowest levels in August 2024. The support and resistance levels are $2,511 and $2,811, respectively.
Cardano
The price dynamics of Cardano from July 16 to 23 outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The coin surged by 14.33%, allowing it to return to the top 10 by market capitalization. Six out of seven trading sessions during the week ended in the green.
The Cardano team has finally set the date for the Chang hard fork. It is expected to be implemented on Tuesday, August 27. A final decision on this will be made no later than August 23. If there are any changes, the next window for the hard fork will be September 3.
Additionally, it was announced this week that the Daedalus wallet has been updated. Version 6.0.0 has been deployed on the mainnet. All users are required to update. It's worth noting that Daedalus remains a desktop full-node wallet exclusively for personal computers. Various mobile variations are scams.
It is evident that investors are also anticipating Chang. Since July 25, ADA inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have only been observed for three days. During this time, coins worth approximately $5.5 million were deposited on exchanges, while on August 20 alone, $5.73 million was withdrawn. This indicates that investors are accumulating ADA in their portfolios, suggesting an expectation of future growth.
The technical analysis outlook has also changed. Bulls are gradually gaining the upper hand. The price has already closely approached the 50-day moving average (marked in blue), and the RSI indicator, having crossed the 50 mark, continued to rise. The next target for Cardano should be the resistance level around $0.43, while the support level is the former resistance level near $0.357.
Conclusion
Major cryptocurrencies have seen growth over the past week. The dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be influenced by cash flows in spot ETFs, at least until news of a rate cut in the U.S. emerges. Optimism among Cardano investors is tied to the upcoming Chang hard fork.
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